US Dollar trend IN 2018
Date：2018-01-15 03:27:45 Visit：1504
On the 29th of December, the last trading day of 2017, China officially announced the central parity rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar increased by 70 basis points from the previous trading day at a fixed rate of 6.5342, setting a new high of more than three months since September 12. According to Wind Information, the central parity rate of RMB against the U.S. dollar rose sharply by 4028 basis points from the 6.9370 at the end of last year, an increase of 5.8%.
Earlier this year, many people in the market were bearish on the RMB. Some people think the exchange rate will easily fall below 7, and some even expect it to drop to more than 8. However, one can still expect that the US dollar index will see a larger decline in 2017 from 93 to 93. This caused heavy losses to investors who bought the U.S. dollar early this year.
For foreign students, the exchange rate has a huge impact on them. If you listen to the beginning of the bearish renminbi for the sound of the dollar, you may be pathetic. For example, a change of 30,000 U.S. dollars at the current exchange rate of 6.5342 would require 1960,126 yuan, whereas at the beginning of the year, an exchange rate of 6.9498 would require 208,494 yuan at an additional cost of 12,468 yuan.
Obviously, fluctuations in the exchange rate of RMB have a huge impact on those people in the fields such as sea scouring, tourism and studying abroad. To this end, a number of experts once again predicted that by 2018 RMB appreciation will not be as unilateral as this year, is expected to remain in a relatively wide range between 6.5-6.7, and then a little bigger up to between 6.4-6.8. This depends on how the external market fluctuations, if the dollar is very strong next year, the RMB fluctuation range will be larger.
However, in the last trading week of 2017, RMB still maintained its strong stance. And this Christmas on the 25th of this week, the central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 138 basis points, the highest in three months to a new high, onshore, offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar have also risen. RMB exchange rate remained strong at the end of the year, how many have some of the taste of China's central bank intervention.
So, why the performance of the renminbi so strong recently? First of all, from a transaction perspective, the RMB surge is caused by the "holiday effect + the end effect." Holiday effect refers to the offshore market Christmas vacation, market liquidity is poor, then a small volume can lead to huge market price earthquake. Precisely because of the low volume, the market is apt to be reversed. As a result, the exchange rate of RMB has been rapidly revalued as long as it is interfered by external forces.
Moreover, although the United States through the tax reform, coupled with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the market generally felt boosted the dollar, but we found that the effect is not obvious, on the strength of the dollar's outlook is skeptical. In addition, institutional investors are cautious at the end of the year and all kinds of end-of-year assessments are reluctant to hold the U.S. dollar position. This is one of the reasons for the rapid rise of the renminbi.
Finally, the euro, the pound rose, means that the dollar index fell sharply. Brexit negotiations in Britain were smooth, and the euro zone economy recovered more healthy. As a result, the strong euro and pound led to the dollar index fell again and again important mark. It is estimated that in 2018, although the ECB will not raise interest rates immediately, tightening of monetary policy is a reality.
Looking 2018 market, I believe the dollar index may have bottomed out the rebound, the renminbi will show a pattern of wide and volatile, the overall will show the former low volatility trend. First, the rate hike and contraction by the Federal Reserve and the smooth passage of the tax reform in the United States will block the decline of the US dollar index. The pattern of wide-spread volatility in the future will be aggravated. The probability of unilateral rising or falling is far smaller than in 2017.
Second, despite the tightening of ECB monetary policy and the improvement of coordination between the United Kingdom and the EU prior to their exit from the EU, the performance of the European economy will be hard to be stronger this year than in 2018 and the ECB monetary policy will not be able to achieve a sustained rate hike. On the contrary, after the dollar index bottomed out, the U.S. economy showed an upward trend, so the dollar index will rebound and remain stable. 2018 short of the dollar index is too short.
Thirdly, after the U.S. dollar index hit a new high of 103 at the end of 2016, the drop has dropped to a staggering 93 below the year-end. As a result, the first half of 2018 is likely to see a weakening of the U.S. dollar and a slight drop of the Renminbi exchange rate.
For Chinese people. Now outbound tourism, consumption, sea exchange willingness to exchange more and more intense, especially the dollar index in the low period, some people would like to take this opportunity to copy a bottom, to the United States to travel and shopping is a good opportunity, because everyone The demand for the U.S. dollar is picking up, so the dollar index is down or down.
For investors who took Renminbi against the U.S. dollar at the end of last year, we should wake up from this because the U.S. dollar index plummets and causes a huge loss. We can neither buy more US dollar, nor because the dollar fell to a record low, no longer dips to absorb, investors must have an independent view of the RMB exchange rate movements, only do not blindly follow the behavior of others, so I abandon people, people Take me away, and conduct professional and detailed analysis, so as to truly defend the great trend.
Earlier this year, many people in the market were bearish on the RMB. Some people think the exchange rate will easily fall below 7, and some even expect it to drop to more than 8. However, one can still expect that the US dollar index will see a larger decline in 2017 from 93 to 93. This caused heavy losses to investors who bought the U.S. dollar early this year.
For foreign students, the exchange rate has a huge impact on them. If you listen to the beginning of the bearish renminbi for the sound of the dollar, you may be pathetic. For example, a change of 30,000 U.S. dollars at the current exchange rate of 6.5342 would require 1960,126 yuan, whereas at the beginning of the year, an exchange rate of 6.9498 would require 208,494 yuan at an additional cost of 12,468 yuan.
Obviously, fluctuations in the exchange rate of RMB have a huge impact on those people in the fields such as sea scouring, tourism and studying abroad. To this end, a number of experts once again predicted that by 2018 RMB appreciation will not be as unilateral as this year, is expected to remain in a relatively wide range between 6.5-6.7, and then a little bigger up to between 6.4-6.8. This depends on how the external market fluctuations, if the dollar is very strong next year, the RMB fluctuation range will be larger.
However, in the last trading week of 2017, RMB still maintained its strong stance. And this Christmas on the 25th of this week, the central parity of the RMB against the U.S. dollar rose 138 basis points, the highest in three months to a new high, onshore, offshore RMB against the U.S. dollar have also risen. RMB exchange rate remained strong at the end of the year, how many have some of the taste of China's central bank intervention.
So, why the performance of the renminbi so strong recently? First of all, from a transaction perspective, the RMB surge is caused by the "holiday effect + the end effect." Holiday effect refers to the offshore market Christmas vacation, market liquidity is poor, then a small volume can lead to huge market price earthquake. Precisely because of the low volume, the market is apt to be reversed. As a result, the exchange rate of RMB has been rapidly revalued as long as it is interfered by external forces.
Moreover, although the United States through the tax reform, coupled with the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, the market generally felt boosted the dollar, but we found that the effect is not obvious, on the strength of the dollar's outlook is skeptical. In addition, institutional investors are cautious at the end of the year and all kinds of end-of-year assessments are reluctant to hold the U.S. dollar position. This is one of the reasons for the rapid rise of the renminbi.
Finally, the euro, the pound rose, means that the dollar index fell sharply. Brexit negotiations in Britain were smooth, and the euro zone economy recovered more healthy. As a result, the strong euro and pound led to the dollar index fell again and again important mark. It is estimated that in 2018, although the ECB will not raise interest rates immediately, tightening of monetary policy is a reality.
Looking 2018 market, I believe the dollar index may have bottomed out the rebound, the renminbi will show a pattern of wide and volatile, the overall will show the former low volatility trend. First, the rate hike and contraction by the Federal Reserve and the smooth passage of the tax reform in the United States will block the decline of the US dollar index. The pattern of wide-spread volatility in the future will be aggravated. The probability of unilateral rising or falling is far smaller than in 2017.
Second, despite the tightening of ECB monetary policy and the improvement of coordination between the United Kingdom and the EU prior to their exit from the EU, the performance of the European economy will be hard to be stronger this year than in 2018 and the ECB monetary policy will not be able to achieve a sustained rate hike. On the contrary, after the dollar index bottomed out, the U.S. economy showed an upward trend, so the dollar index will rebound and remain stable. 2018 short of the dollar index is too short.
Thirdly, after the U.S. dollar index hit a new high of 103 at the end of 2016, the drop has dropped to a staggering 93 below the year-end. As a result, the first half of 2018 is likely to see a weakening of the U.S. dollar and a slight drop of the Renminbi exchange rate.
For Chinese people. Now outbound tourism, consumption, sea exchange willingness to exchange more and more intense, especially the dollar index in the low period, some people would like to take this opportunity to copy a bottom, to the United States to travel and shopping is a good opportunity, because everyone The demand for the U.S. dollar is picking up, so the dollar index is down or down.
For investors who took Renminbi against the U.S. dollar at the end of last year, we should wake up from this because the U.S. dollar index plummets and causes a huge loss. We can neither buy more US dollar, nor because the dollar fell to a record low, no longer dips to absorb, investors must have an independent view of the RMB exchange rate movements, only do not blindly follow the behavior of others, so I abandon people, people Take me away, and conduct professional and detailed analysis, so as to truly defend the great trend.
