The recent steel price has a higher probability of steady upward trend
Date：2018-03-21 12:15:22 Visit：1307
Last week (March 12 to March 16), the national steel market stabilized and the domestic wire rod and rebar market rebounded. Shanghai Licensor General Manager Li Lijuan pointed out that from the transaction point of view, when the price fell to 3,800 yuan / ton ~ 3,900 yuan / ton, the market low turnover is better, the southern and northern regions have accelerated the pace of shipments. From a comprehensive point of view, with the gradual consumption of resources in the previous period and the acceleration of the demand start-up process, the demand for low-cost purchases will become more urgent. In addition, the current base price began to return to the right track, and the situation of deep discounts before the Spring Festival was significantly eased. Therefore, the possibility of a steady rise in the steel price in the near future is more likely.
The main basis for making the above judgments is:
First, this year's economic operation in our country has started to improve. According to economic data, in the first two months of this year, the country’s investment in fixed assets grew by 7.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.7% over the previous year; the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9% faster than the same period of last year. Percentage points; National industrial enterprises above designated size realized export delivery value increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. According to another calculation, in the first two months of this year, the apparent consumption of crude steel in the country was about 12.916 million tons, an increase of 9.7% over the same period of last year. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel in the country will increase by 9% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and the annual growth rate will not be less than 6%. The above data fully reflects the stable trend of China's economy. This is the most basic support factor for the steel market.
Second, last week, the average spot price of steel products fell more than the month-on-month basis. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 16), the average price of 25mm Grade III rebar in 10 major domestic cities was 4,030 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, down from the same period of last month. RMB 43/t; the average price of ф6.5mm HPB300 high line was RMB 4,190/t, which was RMB 10/t lower than the previous Friday and RMB 130/t lower than the same period of last month; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil was RMB 4,036/t, which was RMB 23/t lower than the previous Friday and RMB 79/t lower than the same period of last month; the average price of 1.0 mm CRC was RMB 4,695/t, which was RMB 29/t lower than the previous Friday. Compared with the same period of last month, it was down 86 yuan/ton; the 20mm medium board price was 4245 yuan/ton, which was 60 yuan/ton higher than the previous Friday, and up 144 yuan/ton from the same period of last month.
Third, last week the national steel society stocks began to decline. The national steel stocks began to decline after rising for 12 consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 16), steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country were 17.4559 million tons, a decrease of 197,500 tons, a decrease of 1.12%. The
Fourth, the factory price of leading steel mills increased steadily. According to the steel price policy issued in April by various steel mills, the base price of Shougang HRC remains unchanged at RMB 4,470/ton; the price of hot rolled coil at Angang is increased by RMB 50/ton, and the price of cold-rolled coil is increased by RMB 50/ton Ton.
In addition, last week, the national comprehensive steel price index fell on a week-on-week basis, and the market price of imported iron ore fell. The average daily average output of crude steel in the first two months increased. These factors also affect the trend of the steel market.
The main basis for making the above judgments is:
First, this year's economic operation in our country has started to improve. According to economic data, in the first two months of this year, the country’s investment in fixed assets grew by 7.9% year-on-year, an acceleration of 0.7% over the previous year; the value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 7.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9% faster than the same period of last year. Percentage points; National industrial enterprises above designated size realized export delivery value increased by 9.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period of last year. According to another calculation, in the first two months of this year, the apparent consumption of crude steel in the country was about 12.916 million tons, an increase of 9.7% over the same period of last year. It is expected that the apparent consumption of crude steel in the country will increase by 9% year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and the annual growth rate will not be less than 6%. The above data fully reflects the stable trend of China's economy. This is the most basic support factor for the steel market.
Second, last week, the average spot price of steel products fell more than the month-on-month basis. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 16), the average price of 25mm Grade III rebar in 10 major domestic cities was 4,030 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton from the previous Friday, down from the same period of last month. RMB 43/t; the average price of ф6.5mm HPB300 high line was RMB 4,190/t, which was RMB 10/t lower than the previous Friday and RMB 130/t lower than the same period of last month; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil was RMB 4,036/t, which was RMB 23/t lower than the previous Friday and RMB 79/t lower than the same period of last month; the average price of 1.0 mm CRC was RMB 4,695/t, which was RMB 29/t lower than the previous Friday. Compared with the same period of last month, it was down 86 yuan/ton; the 20mm medium board price was 4245 yuan/ton, which was 60 yuan/ton higher than the previous Friday, and up 144 yuan/ton from the same period of last month.
Third, last week the national steel society stocks began to decline. The national steel stocks began to decline after rising for 12 consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring data, as of last Friday (March 16), steel society stocks in 29 key cities across the country were 17.4559 million tons, a decrease of 197,500 tons, a decrease of 1.12%. The
Fourth, the factory price of leading steel mills increased steadily. According to the steel price policy issued in April by various steel mills, the base price of Shougang HRC remains unchanged at RMB 4,470/ton; the price of hot rolled coil at Angang is increased by RMB 50/ton, and the price of cold-rolled coil is increased by RMB 50/ton Ton.
In addition, last week, the national comprehensive steel price index fell on a week-on-week basis, and the market price of imported iron ore fell. The average daily average output of crude steel in the first two months increased. These factors also affect the trend of the steel market.
